Owens may back House Republican leader John Boehner for Speaker

Bill Owens

Last week Representative Democrat Bill Owens (pictured right) said that he might back House Republican leader John Boehner for speaker. After this news became public, Owens told the Adirondack Daily Enterprise that, “I was blowing off a little steam” since he was frustrated over not hearing back from either leader (Pelosi or Boehner) about an extension of the expiring Bush era tax cuts. According to Brendan Quinn, the former state party director who oversaw GOP House races this year, Owens is running scared and made the following statement to the National Review Online:

“If he’s talking about a vote for Boehner, it’s a sign that he’s looking to protect his backside in New York,” Quinn says. “But the real issue for him is not Boehner; it’s the New York State Senate and redistricting. And this is not about securing earmarks from the House Republicans — they’ve already pledged to end them.”

“Owens knows that Republicans will have, at minimum, a 32-30 majority in the state senate,” Quinn says. “Republicans will have an active role in reapportionment, and New York is going to lose two House seats. Typically they come out of upstate, due to the numbers of people moving out of the region. Many Republicans would love to carve off Owens’s district…That will force Owens to pick his poison come 2012.”

“Republicans could easily gobble up New York’s 23rd into those three districts,” Quinn says.

So is it really that Owens is “blowing off a little steam” due to no response from either leader or is it because he is realizing the effect of the Republican-controlled Congress and redistricting? What we do know is that Bill Owens voted for Nancy Pelosi for Democratic conference leader last week, but he says he might vote for Republican John Boehner for speaker of the House in January. Owens also said he is "very disappointed ... in the failure of either she or Mr. Boehner to offer a compromise on the Bush tax cuts. I think that's a real failure of leadership on both of their parts."

I believe Owens’ main focus right now is on trying to extend the Bush tax cuts and getting feedback from Pelosi and Boehner. Owens and three Democratic colleagues in the House have proposed a compromise that would include a one-year extension of the tax cuts for individuals and joint filers making under $500,000 yearly, as well as five-year extensions of the tax cuts on capital gains, qualified dividends and for individuals making under $200,000 and couples making under $250,000 yearly. Even though Owens hasn’t received any feedback from the leadership on both sides, he continues to push for a vote on a compromise. 

Owens’ Victory and the Republican-Controlled Congress

Bill Owens

Bill Owens has come out victorious in the race to represent New York’s 23^rd Congressional District. Incumbent, Democrat candidate Owens had 76,204 votes (48%) compared to 72,435 votes (46%) for Republican candidate Doheny. Hoffman, whose name was on the ballot for the Conservative Party, got the remaining 9,536 votes (6%). About a month ago, Hoffman suspended his campaign and told his supporters to vote for Doheny in order not to split the Republican vote. In this toss-up race, Bill Owens came out victorious.

In Owens’ victoriy speech, he said that for the next two years his agenda would be “to your surprise, to bring more jobs to the North Country,” a common theme of his campaign. Clinton County Democratic Party Chairman Marty Mannix felt that Owens’ victory was large a result of him staying on the message about creating jobs and running a positive campaign. In Doheny’s concession speech, he told supporters that he had congratulated Owens on his victory and offered to help him.

Unlike last term, incumbent Owens will not be in the majority anymore since the Republicans have taken about 50 seats in the House, which gives them a slight majority. Owens said in his speech that he is confident that he can work with Republicans “just like [he] has been doing around her for 33 years.” He is said that working with a Republican-controlled Congress would depend on the “internal politics” of the GOP. He believed that “mainstream Republicans” might break from their more conservative colleagues in order to work with moderate Democrats, which Owens has said he is.

Doheny got more votes than Owens in Fulton, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lewis, Madison, Oneida and Oswego counties, but Owens made up these deficits with big wins in Clinton, Franklin and St. Lawrence counties. Owens edged Doheny by 123 votes in the portion of Essex County in the district. Overall, Owens has been victorious by a slim margin in this year’s toss-up election for the House seat in New York 23^rd District and it will be interesting to see how Owens will perform in the next two years.

Creating jobs was a big part of Owens' campaign and it proved to be an important platform for his success with the NY-23:

Bill Owens wins NY-23!

Bill Owens

Democratic candidate Bill Owens won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives from New York defeating Republican Matt Doheny in the traditionally Republican 23rd District of New York. The election results showed that Owens won 48.1% of the vote, Doheny won 45.8% of the vote, and Hoffman won 6% of the vote even though he encouraged his supporters to vote for Doheny. It proved to be a close race right to the end but Bill Owens managed to be victorious over his competitors. After the results were announced, he released a thank you letter on his campaign website thanking all of his supporters:

Dear Friend,

Thank you.

Thanks to your support, I was given the opportunity to serve the people of Upstate New York in Congress last year.  We beat the odds then, and because of you, we made history again last night!

Last night proved what I have known all along, the people of Upstate New York care more about commonsense solutions than tired partisan labels.  In order to move forward, we must work together.  Republicans, Democrats, and Independents all must bring solutions to the table to solve the problems that we all face.

The North Country has given me every opportunity I could have asked for and every day I will work to make ensure those same opportunities that I had continue for its residents who deserve nothing less.

There is much work to be done, but together I know we can achieve anything.

It is an honor to serve,

 

Owens and Doheny fight for undecided voters

With the race almost drawing closer to a finish, Owens and Doheny start to fight for the undecided voters in hopes of securing a victory on November 2, 2010 for a seat in the House. It’s still anybody’s race and is still considered a toss-up according to the New York Times Race Rating. According to the FiveThirtyEight Model, on October 26, 2010, the chance of a Republican win was 64%, and today it has declined to 60%. What does this mean about the election? It means that undecided voters are going to play a large role on which candidate wins the 23^rd Congressional District of New York’s seat in the House.

In this fight for votes, both candidates touch on “hot-button” issues that they feel that the public feels the need to be addressed. Matt Doheny took a negative approach and discussed Owens’ voting record, “My opponent voted to go ahead and take a vacation, he was the last vote 210 to 209, to not stay and make sure that we don't end up having one of the biggest tax increases ever on January 1st, the Obama tax hike, he voted to go on vacation and come back home,” Doheny said. Owens took a different approach than Doheny and discussed what he wants to do if he gets re-elected. “I want to see programs that create jobs,” Owens said. “Those targeted tax credits that are going to help businesses create jobs; I think we need to facilitate the movement of people and goods across the Canadian border.”

Doheny is clearly tired of what he views as “reckless spending” in Washington and the candidates disagree on the recent health care bill (which Owens voted for). He defends his decision stating, “Health care premiums were going to go up, if we didn't do something, were going to go up 10 to 40 for the foreseeable future per year. They had gone up on average of 10 percent for the last ten years. This was a good first step,” Owens said. Doheny completely disagrees with Owens and feels the district is heading in the wrong direction due to out of control spending, socializing healthcare, and raising people’s taxes. Will Doheny’s negative approach get the attention of some undecided voters or will Owens’ approach be more effective? We will have to wait and find out November 2 since at this point in the race, it can go either way and be anyone’s victory.

Popular television show, "Family Guy," also comments on undecided voters when one of the characters runs for an election. This video in no way reflects the opinions of the candidates or myself but is just a humorous approach to the subject:

Doheny questions Owens' Voting Record in Debate

Matt Doheny (left) and Bill Owens (right) shaking hands after the
debate on Friday, October 15, 2010.

On Friday, October 15, 2010, Republican challenger Matt Doheny met face-to-face with Democrat, incumbent candidate Bill Owens in East Syracuse. They debated and clashed repeatedly over issues such as how to create jobs and stimulate the region’s economy, tax cuts, and changing Social Security. One area that was a focus of the debate was Owens’ voting record and Doheny was not afraid to question them and point them out during the debate.

 Doheny criticized Bill Owens in the debate constantly voting with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. “Unfortunately what we’ve seen from (Owens) over the course of the past year is a 93 percent agreement with Speaker Pelosi,” Doheny said. “When you have someone who is lockstep with Nancy Pelosi, like Bill is, we have wrong decisions being made, not only for the 23rd Congressional District, but for the country.” Owens disagreed saying that he often votes against his own party on serious issues. “I don’t have a voting record that puts me in lockstep with anyone,” Owens said. “Anyone who knows me knows I’m extremely independent.” During the debate, Doheny questions Owens’s voting records but this isn’t the first time we have seen this allegations.

As I discussed last week, both candidates have released attack ads in order to sway voter opinion in this toss up race. In Owens’ ad, tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas is a focus while Doheny’s ads focuses on Owens voting with Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stating that he does what she wants rather than what is in the best interests of the district. Doheny is making sure that the public and especially the voters are aware of Owens’ voting record but is this negative attention for Owens’ affecting the polls? A poll released by the Siena (College) Research Institute on October 20,2010 shows Owens leading Doheny, 44 percent to 39 percent. The poll is the first independent survey of voters in the poll had a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It seems that even with all this attention to Owens’ voting record, he is still leading in the polls.

Below are some attack ads that have been released during this toss up race in order to try to sway voter opinion. Do you think that these ads will sway the voters or do you think that it won't have a major effect (like Owens' voting record debate)?

NY-23 Turns into a Toss Up Race

Matt Doheny (left) and Bill Owens (right)

Several weeks ago I explained why Bill Owens, the Democrat incumbent candidate, has an advantage in this election over his opponents. Last week I discussed why Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, dropped out of the race and the advantages it gave to Matt Doheny, the Republican candidate. As a result of Hoffman’s actions to drop out of the race, change in race dynamics has taken place as well as a series of attack ads have been recently released.

Non-partisan political analyst Charlie Cook and The New York Times have both recently moved New York’s 23^rd congressional district election from a “leaning Democrat” raced to a “toss up.” According to the FiveThirtyEight Model, the chance of a Republican win is 67%, a dramatic turnaround from the beginning of this month when according to the same model there was a 74% chance of a Democratic win. This means that Bill Owens, even with all his advantages, is going to have a difficult time getting reelected and the media is taking notice of the race in this district.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in response to Doheny’s lead in the polls has significantly increased its ad buy about $250,000 in the Albany, Syracuse, Watertown, and Burlington, Vermont media markets. Democrats are worried that without Hoffman to split the conservative vote, Owens will have trouble holding the Republican-leading district. Both candidates have released attack ads in order to influence voter behavior and sway them in their favor. In Owens’ ad, tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas is a focus while Doheny’s ads focus on Owens voting with Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stating that he does what she wants rather than what is in the best interests of the district. How will these ads influence the election, the voters, and the current “toss up” race? No one is for sure, but was it for certain is that it will definitely be an interesting race to keep an eye on in the weeks to come.

Doug Hoffman Drops out of Race

Doug Hoffman

            On September 14, Doug Hoffman lost the Republican primary to Matt Doheny but insisted he would stay in the race on the Conservative Party line. On October 5, he stepped aside and dropped out of the race after repeated suggestions that he would only hand the election to Bill Owens (the Democrat, incumbent candidate) by splitting the Republican vote between him and Doheny. "It was never my intention to split the Republican vote in the 23rd District,” Hoffman said in a statement. “So today, I withdraw as a candidate from this race. Matt Doheny and I may have differed on some issues during the course of our primary race. Now, we must put those differences aside and do what is best for our nation. So today, I am asking all my supporters to cast their vote for Matt Doheny on Election Day, November 2nd."

            In other words, many have suggested that Hoffman step down in order to not split the Republican vote and increase Owens chances of winning the race. This is a clever campaign strategy in order to help Doheny to grab more votes. This particular strategy involves voter targeting which involves categorizing different groups of voters, identifying their political preferences, and designing appeals to which they are likely to respond.

Hoffman is also implementing an attitude-oriented strategy by stating that by him dropping out of the race, he is doing “what is best for our nation.” Those who favor and agree with his position are more likely to cast their vote for Doheny than Owens. It will be interesting to see if these strategies that were recently executed will help Doheny or if Bill Owens, the incumbent candidate and projected winner of the race, will have the votes and claim victory.

Check out his thank you letter to all his supporters found on his campaign website!!