As I stated before, according to the FiveThirtyEight Model, there is a 74% chance of a Democratic win in New York’s 23rd Congressional District. This week I would like to touch on the Democratic candidate Bill Owens, his advantage over the other candidates, and why he has an advantage in the race.
Bill Owens is the incumbent candidate and this gives him a huge advantage, especially when it came to raising funds for his campaign. Not only is the election a campaign for a seat in the House but it also has been a campaign for resources. Why did Bill Owens raise so much more money than his opponents? Incumbents raise more money than challengers because they tend to be visible, popular, and willing to exploit the advantages of holding office. Paul Herrnson, director of the Center for American Politics and Citizenship and professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland describes in his book, “Congressional Elections,” that the unequal distribution of power between incumbents and other candidates has made contributing across geographical jurisdictions a common approach among access-oriented donors. “The politicians go where the money is and that money flows to power speaks volumes about the campaign for resources.”
The 23rd Congressional District has also seen Owens in action in the House and knows what to expect from the candidate. During Owens campaign he said he would focus on creating jobs throughout the district and has proven so while in office. As a congressman, Owens first authored piece of legislation was the “Rural Jobs Tax Credit Act,” a bill that, if passed, would create a 15% tax incentive in 2010 for businesses that hire or expand their payroll in rural areas, and a 10% tax incentive for firms that do the same in 2010. Voters know Bill Owens, know his political positions, and know what he can do in Congress. The fact that Owens is an incumbent candidate will prove beneficial to him throughout the rest of the election and may even help him win the election.
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