Owens and Doheny fight for undecided voters

With the race almost drawing closer to a finish, Owens and Doheny start to fight for the undecided voters in hopes of securing a victory on November 2, 2010 for a seat in the House. It’s still anybody’s race and is still considered a toss-up according to the New York Times Race Rating. According to the FiveThirtyEight Model, on October 26, 2010, the chance of a Republican win was 64%, and today it has declined to 60%. What does this mean about the election? It means that undecided voters are going to play a large role on which candidate wins the 23^rd Congressional District of New York’s seat in the House.

In this fight for votes, both candidates touch on “hot-button” issues that they feel that the public feels the need to be addressed. Matt Doheny took a negative approach and discussed Owens’ voting record, “My opponent voted to go ahead and take a vacation, he was the last vote 210 to 209, to not stay and make sure that we don't end up having one of the biggest tax increases ever on January 1st, the Obama tax hike, he voted to go on vacation and come back home,” Doheny said. Owens took a different approach than Doheny and discussed what he wants to do if he gets re-elected. “I want to see programs that create jobs,” Owens said. “Those targeted tax credits that are going to help businesses create jobs; I think we need to facilitate the movement of people and goods across the Canadian border.”

Doheny is clearly tired of what he views as “reckless spending” in Washington and the candidates disagree on the recent health care bill (which Owens voted for). He defends his decision stating, “Health care premiums were going to go up, if we didn't do something, were going to go up 10 to 40 for the foreseeable future per year. They had gone up on average of 10 percent for the last ten years. This was a good first step,” Owens said. Doheny completely disagrees with Owens and feels the district is heading in the wrong direction due to out of control spending, socializing healthcare, and raising people’s taxes. Will Doheny’s negative approach get the attention of some undecided voters or will Owens’ approach be more effective? We will have to wait and find out November 2 since at this point in the race, it can go either way and be anyone’s victory.

Popular television show, "Family Guy," also comments on undecided voters when one of the characters runs for an election. This video in no way reflects the opinions of the candidates or myself but is just a humorous approach to the subject:

Doheny questions Owens' Voting Record in Debate

Matt Doheny (left) and Bill Owens (right) shaking hands after the
debate on Friday, October 15, 2010.

On Friday, October 15, 2010, Republican challenger Matt Doheny met face-to-face with Democrat, incumbent candidate Bill Owens in East Syracuse. They debated and clashed repeatedly over issues such as how to create jobs and stimulate the region’s economy, tax cuts, and changing Social Security. One area that was a focus of the debate was Owens’ voting record and Doheny was not afraid to question them and point them out during the debate.

 Doheny criticized Bill Owens in the debate constantly voting with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. “Unfortunately what we’ve seen from (Owens) over the course of the past year is a 93 percent agreement with Speaker Pelosi,” Doheny said. “When you have someone who is lockstep with Nancy Pelosi, like Bill is, we have wrong decisions being made, not only for the 23rd Congressional District, but for the country.” Owens disagreed saying that he often votes against his own party on serious issues. “I don’t have a voting record that puts me in lockstep with anyone,” Owens said. “Anyone who knows me knows I’m extremely independent.” During the debate, Doheny questions Owens’s voting records but this isn’t the first time we have seen this allegations.

As I discussed last week, both candidates have released attack ads in order to sway voter opinion in this toss up race. In Owens’ ad, tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas is a focus while Doheny’s ads focuses on Owens voting with Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stating that he does what she wants rather than what is in the best interests of the district. Doheny is making sure that the public and especially the voters are aware of Owens’ voting record but is this negative attention for Owens’ affecting the polls? A poll released by the Siena (College) Research Institute on October 20,2010 shows Owens leading Doheny, 44 percent to 39 percent. The poll is the first independent survey of voters in the poll had a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It seems that even with all this attention to Owens’ voting record, he is still leading in the polls.

Below are some attack ads that have been released during this toss up race in order to try to sway voter opinion. Do you think that these ads will sway the voters or do you think that it won't have a major effect (like Owens' voting record debate)?

NY-23 Turns into a Toss Up Race

Matt Doheny (left) and Bill Owens (right)

Several weeks ago I explained why Bill Owens, the Democrat incumbent candidate, has an advantage in this election over his opponents. Last week I discussed why Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, dropped out of the race and the advantages it gave to Matt Doheny, the Republican candidate. As a result of Hoffman’s actions to drop out of the race, change in race dynamics has taken place as well as a series of attack ads have been recently released.

Non-partisan political analyst Charlie Cook and The New York Times have both recently moved New York’s 23^rd congressional district election from a “leaning Democrat” raced to a “toss up.” According to the FiveThirtyEight Model, the chance of a Republican win is 67%, a dramatic turnaround from the beginning of this month when according to the same model there was a 74% chance of a Democratic win. This means that Bill Owens, even with all his advantages, is going to have a difficult time getting reelected and the media is taking notice of the race in this district.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in response to Doheny’s lead in the polls has significantly increased its ad buy about $250,000 in the Albany, Syracuse, Watertown, and Burlington, Vermont media markets. Democrats are worried that without Hoffman to split the conservative vote, Owens will have trouble holding the Republican-leading district. Both candidates have released attack ads in order to influence voter behavior and sway them in their favor. In Owens’ ad, tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas is a focus while Doheny’s ads focus on Owens voting with Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stating that he does what she wants rather than what is in the best interests of the district. How will these ads influence the election, the voters, and the current “toss up” race? No one is for sure, but was it for certain is that it will definitely be an interesting race to keep an eye on in the weeks to come.

Doug Hoffman Drops out of Race

Doug Hoffman

            On September 14, Doug Hoffman lost the Republican primary to Matt Doheny but insisted he would stay in the race on the Conservative Party line. On October 5, he stepped aside and dropped out of the race after repeated suggestions that he would only hand the election to Bill Owens (the Democrat, incumbent candidate) by splitting the Republican vote between him and Doheny. "It was never my intention to split the Republican vote in the 23rd District,” Hoffman said in a statement. “So today, I withdraw as a candidate from this race. Matt Doheny and I may have differed on some issues during the course of our primary race. Now, we must put those differences aside and do what is best for our nation. So today, I am asking all my supporters to cast their vote for Matt Doheny on Election Day, November 2nd."

            In other words, many have suggested that Hoffman step down in order to not split the Republican vote and increase Owens chances of winning the race. This is a clever campaign strategy in order to help Doheny to grab more votes. This particular strategy involves voter targeting which involves categorizing different groups of voters, identifying their political preferences, and designing appeals to which they are likely to respond.

Hoffman is also implementing an attitude-oriented strategy by stating that by him dropping out of the race, he is doing “what is best for our nation.” Those who favor and agree with his position are more likely to cast their vote for Doheny than Owens. It will be interesting to see if these strategies that were recently executed will help Doheny or if Bill Owens, the incumbent candidate and projected winner of the race, will have the votes and claim victory.

Check out his thank you letter to all his supporters found on his campaign website!!

Bill Owens' Advantage

          As I stated before, according to the FiveThirtyEight Model, there is a 74% chance of a Democratic win in New York’s 23^rd Congressional District. This week I would like to touch on the Democratic candidate Bill Owens, his advantage over the other candidates, and why he has an advantage in the race.

Bill Owens is the incumbent candidate and this gives him a huge advantage, especially when it came to raising funds for his campaign. Not only is the election a campaign for a seat in the House but it also has been a campaign for resources. Why did Bill Owens raise so much more money than his opponents? Incumbents raise more money than challengers because they tend to be visible, popular, and willing to exploit the advantages of holding office. Paul Herrnson, director of the Center for American Politics and Citizenship and professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland describes in his book, “Congressional Elections,” that the unequal distribution of power between incumbents and other candidates has made contributing across geographical jurisdictions a common approach among access-oriented donors. “The politicians go where the money is and that money flows to power speaks volumes about the campaign for resources.”

The 23^rd Congressional District has also seen Owens in action in the House and knows what to expect from the candidate. During Owens campaign he said he would focus on creating jobs throughout the district and has proven so while in office. As a congressman, Owens first authored piece of legislation was the “Rural Jobs Tax Credit Act,” a bill that, if passed, would create a 15% tax incentive in 2010 for businesses that hire or expand their payroll in rural areas, and a 10% tax incentive for firms that do the same in 2010. Voters know Bill Owens, know his political positions, and know what he can do in Congress. The fact that Owens is an incumbent candidate will prove beneficial to him throughout the rest of the election and may even help him win the election.