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| Matt Doheny (left) and Bill Owens (right) |
Several weeks ago I explained why Bill Owens, the Democrat incumbent candidate, has an advantage in this election over his opponents. Last week I discussed why Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, dropped out of the race and the advantages it gave to Matt Doheny, the Republican candidate. As a result of Hoffman’s actions to drop out of the race, change in race dynamics has taken place as well as a series of attack ads have been recently released.
Non-partisan political analyst Charlie Cook and The New York Times have both recently moved New York’s 23rd congressional district election from a “leaning Democrat” raced to a “toss up.” According to the FiveThirtyEight Model, the chance of a Republican win is 67%, a dramatic turnaround from the beginning of this month when according to the same model there was a 74% chance of a Democratic win. This means that Bill Owens, even with all his advantages, is going to have a difficult time getting reelected and the media is taking notice of the race in this district.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in response to Doheny’s lead in the polls has significantly increased its ad buy about $250,000 in the Albany, Syracuse, Watertown, and Burlington, Vermont media markets. Democrats are worried that without Hoffman to split the conservative vote, Owens will have trouble holding the Republican-leading district. Both candidates have released attack ads in order to influence voter behavior and sway them in their favor. In Owens’ ad, tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas is a focus while Doheny’s ads focus on Owens voting with Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stating that he does what she wants rather than what is in the best interests of the district. How will these ads influence the election, the voters, and the current “toss up” race? No one is for sure, but was it for certain is that it will definitely be an interesting race to keep an eye on in the weeks to come.
It is very interesting to see how quickly things have turned around in this district, from leaning democratic to a toss up seems to not be that extreme but with all of the advantages of democratic incumbent Bill Owens, its just another sign of the times. The conservative party candidate, Doug Hoffeman, dropping out of the race contributed to this, as well as the nations current trend of leaning republican even if they have typically voted democrat. the dynamic of this race has changed, theres not doubt about that, and it should be interesting to see if Owens can hold his seat in the upcoming election.
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